Everything Is Predictable

How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World

Author: Tom Chivers

A fascinating intellectual history that takes a comparatively little-known but important idea and shows how it affects huge areas of our lives

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Summary

A fascinating intellectual history that takes a comparatively little-known but important idea and shows how it affects huge areas of our lives

Description

SHORTLISTED FOR THE ROYAL SOCIETY TRIVEDI SCIENCE BOOK PRIZE 2024

'Fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting' Oliver Burkeman

'A remarkable book about a remarkable theorem' Will Storr

'Witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you' Tim Harford

Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his theorem was mainly seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its implications soon became clear.

Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. But its influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of rationality, and of the human brain.

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life. From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.

Critic Reviews

Life is shot through with uncertainty, but in this fascinating, witty and perspective-shifting book, Tom Chivers shows why this needn't condemn us to powerlessness and panic. I finished Everything Is Predictable not only better informed about a captivating branch of mathematics, but with an invigorating sense of greater purchase on the world -- OLIVER BURKEMAN
One thing that is perfectly predictable is that Tom Chivers writes terrific books. This one is no exception: it's witty, lively and best of all, extremely nerdy. I learned a lot and so will you -- TIM HARFORD
A remarkable book by a remarkable writer about a remarkable theorem. The statistical chance of it not changing how you see the world forever is zero -- WILL STORR
EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE is one of those books that makes you feel smarter with every page you read. It should be required reading for anyone engaged in evidence-based decision-making - and I guess that means all of us -- PHILIP BALL
From assessing the effectiveness of treatments, to the way consciousness works and the way we make decisions, Tom Chivers makes a compelling case that Bayes' theorem is the one formula that everyone should understand -- ANANYO BHATTACHARYA
From an eighteenth-century cleric to the workings of the brain, Chivers explores the impact of Bayes' theorem; the mathematical basis for learning under uncertainty. After neatly summarising the history of probability and statistics, he handles challenging and controversial Bayesian approach to scientific evidence, induction, decision-making, statistical modelling, prediction, and human perception and reasoning. All with his customary light touch, and full of quotes and vivid stories. A filling but very tasty book -- DAVID SPIEGELHALTER
Life is a poker game where we are all trying to make the best decisions we can based on the limited amount of information we have. This book is about an equation, devised in 1763, which describes - mathematically - how we do that IRISH TIMES
Entertaining . . . both enthralling and relatively easy to understand. I can't remember when I last enjoyed a popular maths book so much. It's a delight -- Brian Clegg POPULAR SCIENCE

About the Author

Tom Chivers is a science writer and author. He was given Royal Statistical Society 'Statistical Excellence in Journalism' awards in 2018 and 2020, and was declared the Science Writer of the Year by the Association of British Science Writers in 2021. His two previous books are The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy and How to Read Numbers (with David Chivers).